Brazil votes tomorrow in a tied runoff between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro, after the final debate and annulment petitions before the TSE
Brasília — Brazil elects its next president tomorrow, Sunday, October 25, in a runoff between President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, with the final polls in a statistical tie and the result expected a few hours after polls close.
Polling stations will open at 8 a.m. and close at 5 p.m., Brasília time, and the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) will begin publishing the national count at that same hour. The winner will take office for a four-year term on January 5, 2027.
In the first round, on October 4, Flávio Bolsonaro finished first with 47.03% of valid votes against 45.16% for Lula, without the majority needed to win outright. Since then the gap has closed: the final Datafolha survey, with 2,520 interviews between October 20 and 22 and a two-point margin of error, showed a 50-50 tie in valid votes; Vox Brasil put Lula ahead by 50.6% to 49.4%, and Quaest, from October 21, gave Bolsonaro 45% and Lula 44%.
The final stretch included the last televised debate, on Friday on TV Globo, moderated by César Tralli, and a judicial escalation: Lula's coalition asked the TSE to annul Flávio's candidacy, arguing in a 139-page filing that Meta's and X's recommendation systems and AI tools gave the campaigns unequal treatment; according to the complaint, a network of 255 accounts published 1,204 posts with 58.6 million views in one month, and it cites an alleged payment of 600,000 reais from Bolsonaro's campaign to the cybersecurity firm Elytron. These are claims in the lawsuit, not findings by the court, which also received petitions against Lula's candidacy.
Lula, 80, is seeking a fourth non-consecutive term and points to falling unemployment and poverty and progress against deforestation in the Amazon; in the final stretch he promised free public transport on weekends. Flávio Bolsonaro, 45 and son of former President Jair Bolsonaro — who is serving a 27-year sentence over the coup plot after the 2022 election — proposes a tougher approach to crime, spending restraint and constitutional changes, and has said he would work for his father's release if he wins.
One figure could decide the election: abstention in the first round was 21.08%, the highest in a first round since 1998, and around 8% of the electorate made up of undecided voters and blank or null ballots could tip a result that the polls cannot pull out of the tie.
Read also: Brazil: statistical tie between Flávio Bolsonaro (50.9%) and Lula (49.1%) two days before the runoff.
Photo: Anadolu Agency
Source: Aalimi Nation