Brazil: statistical tie between Flávio Bolsonaro (50.9%) and Lula (49.1%) two days before the runoff

Brasilia — The presidential race in Brazil is in a statistical tie two days before the runoff on Sunday, October 25, according to the latest poll average.

Flávio Bolsonaro averages 50.9% and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 49.1% of valid votes, according to the simple average of five polls compiled by TResearch and Mitofsky and published October 23, 2026.

The Datafolha poll shows a clear tightening of the race: on October 8 Flávio had 52% to Lula's 48%; on October 22 both stood at 50%. The Quaest poll also places them at 45% and 44%, within the two-point margin of error.

Specialists' analysis identifies the televised debate this Friday the 23rd and voter turnout as decisive factors, with more than 33 million Brazilians who did not vote in the first round able to tip the balance in the runoff.

Brazil, Latin America's largest democracy, decides its political course on Sunday in one of the closest elections in its recent history, with the whole region watching the outcome.

Photo: Mitofsky

Source: Mitofsky / TResearch